About That Blue Wave …

So, liberals, still think you’re gonna have that “Blue Wave”?

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About That Blue Wave …
By MUSA AL-GHARBIMARCH 7, 2018

The prevailing wisdom suggests that there will be a Democratic wave election in 2018. In a manner that suggests that little was learned from the 2016 primary or general elections, pundits and analysts seem so committed to this narrative that they promote it even when the data point in the other direction.

The primaries in Texas on Tuesday are a good case in point. Early-voting numbers suggested good news for the Democrats: 465,245 voters took part in early voting for their primary, as compared to 420,329 for the Republicans’.

This is a big gain for Democrats over their totals in the previous midterm year, 2014, when their early-voting turnout was 226,730. However, contrary to the scaremongering letter that the Republican governor, Greg Abbott, sent predicting decreased Republican turnout in early voting this year, his party actually had an increase in participation, up 15 percent from 2014.

In short, both parties were highly motivated in early voting. This picture was confirmed at the ballot box.

Democrats had near-record turnout, with more than one million voters over all taking part in their primaries. Sounds impressive, right? But Republicans had actual record-breaking turnout, exceeding their previous midterm high-water mark, which was set in 2010. All told, with more than 1.5 million votes cast, Republicans had nearly 50 percent more voters take part in their primary than the Democrats in theirs.

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There does not seem to be an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans. If the Democrats’ numbers seem impressive in 2018, this is because their previous benchmarks in the state have been relatively low.

In fact, despite longstanding expectations of Texas becoming a so-called purple state, Democrats have not won a statewide office there since 1994. This is the longest losing streak for either party in any state.

Primary turnout is not dispositive in any case. In 2002, when Democrats set their record for midterm primary turnout, they failed to flip a single congressional seat in the general election.

As for the specific seats Democrats hope to capture in November, it appears that Republicans would retain control if the races were decided on the basis of Tuesday’s primary vote. Democrats have a lot of work to do to catch up.

But just as important, if not more so, there were marked differences between the parties in terms of the tone of their primaries.

On the Democratic side, there was bitter internal strife, dating back to the previous election cycle, between the “establishment” Democrats and the populist “Berniecrats.” Many of the latter are not committed partisans: While they are highly motivated to support populists, many refuse to lend their support to more conventional Democratic candidates. As we saw in 2016, many former Sanders supporters sat out the general election, voted for a third-party candidate or voted for Donald Trump.

Democrats should be concerned about their ability to mobilize populists in the races “establishment” figures won. So the party could find itself facing another enthusiasm deficit for many key races, even with Mr. Trump in the White House.

On the Republican side, there was clear unity behind the president and his party. The races were mostly about which candidate was most supportive of President Trump. As a result, it seems likely that Republican voters will support whoever is on their ticket in the general election.

We can count on Republican primary voters to turn out in November as well. Republicans reliably vote in midterms, and again it is important to note that primary patterns suggest that enthusiasm is particularly high in the Republican base this year, too.

Republicans are motivated, in part, to act as a bulwark against any “blue wave” that might be coming their way. Following Mr. Abbott’s lead, candidates like Senator Ted Cruz have been doing their best to reinforce expectations of a possible Democratic surge in order to get his voters fired up: “We know that the left is going to show up,” Mr. Cruz said on Tuesday. “The extreme left, they’re angry. They’re filled with rage. They hate the president.”

The Republicans’ record primary turnout suggests this is an effective mobilization strategy. In contrast, for the Democrats, raising expectations of a wave could be dangerous. Democratic constituents are generally disinclined to vote in midterms in the first place. To the extent that they are not particularly excited about the candidate their party fielded and believe that Democrats will most likely make major gains with or without them, it becomes more likely that a significant number will stay home on Election Day.

In other words, not only can the blue wave narrative distract us from what is happening on the ground, it can also help drive Republican enthusiasm and undermine Democratic turnout — not quite the double whammy Democratic strategists are looking for.

Musa al-Gharbi is a fellow in sociology at Columbia University.

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A version of this op-ed appears in print on March 8, 2018, on Page A27 of the New York edition with the headline: About That Blue Wave ….